Will Italy's Economic Crisis Mean Endgame for the Euro? (Time.com)

You know the old saying: It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Well, in the case of the euro zone debt crisis, that lady is Italy, she's plump enough to cause quite a bit of trouble, and the orchestra looks to be tuning up.

We're in the middle of yet another global financial rout, with stocks plunging around the globe, the sort of panic we've witnessed with sickening regularity in recent months. And as usual, Europe sits at ground zero. Italian government bonds got hammered on Wednesday, smashing through the important 7% level to a new euro-era high. Once Italy's fellow PIIGS ? Greece, Portugal and Ireland ? broke through the 7% level, their borrowing costs escalated, eventually forcing them to seek European Union bailouts. Italy's plight completely alters the situation in Europe, from a potentially manageable crisis to a potentially unmanageable crisis. Let's put in perspective what's happening here. Italy is not some half-baked emerging market or even a small, developed-world basket case like Greece. Italy is Europe's fourth-largest economy; its bond market is the world's third largest. And in a matter of no time, the liquidity in that market is drying up. And what's scary here is that there may not be any way to rescue Italy if this spiral continues. (See "Silvio Berlusconi and the Politics of Sex.")

This is serious stuff, folks. For two years, grim voices in financial circles have been worried about just this type of scenario ? when the debt crisis in Europe bit into the core of the euro zone, at the big boys that were too big to bailout. Now that worst-case scenario looks more likely to play out in real life. The endgame could be a renewed global financial crisis, a collapse of the monetary union, who knows. Here's what economist Ken Courtis wrote me today:

In a sense Greece, Portugal, Ireland have been side shows. With Italy, we are moving to the main event. There is simply no way that Italy can conduct the massive refundings it has in the coming weeks with this situation?This is like when you see a movie of which you have read the initial scenario before hand. The film is different in places, perhaps even the sequence of scenes is changed, some it has been chopped, but you still recognize it?The scenario no one (except the shorts of course) has wanted to see unfold is now playing itself out before our eyes unfortunately. (See Berlusconi's Worst Gaffes)

So is this the "big one" we've all been dreading? The moment when the euro zone crisis spins out of control, and we all suffer?

Much of the answer to that depends on what happens in Rome in coming days. The debauched Silvio Berlusconi might have announced he will resign, but he hasn't yet, and that effectively leaves Italy without a government. And we don't know when it will have a government, or what sort of government it might have. Will there be an election? Will some sort of coalition be formed? We're all left guessing. And when markets are nervous, they don't like guessing. Without strong leadership, hopes for real reform in Italy are uncertain at best. Until Italy's politicians show they are truly taking the crisis seriously, markets will continue to punish Italian bonds. (Archive: The Rise and Fall and Rise of Silvio Berlusconi)

And where does that take us? Italy can likely handle elevated borrowing costs for a while without too much trouble. The bigger issue is liquidity. Because Italian debt is so large, the government needs to constantly tap financial markets to refinance itself. The big problem hits when Italy can't do that anymore, or not at a cost it can stomach. Can Italy still get the funds it needs? We're about to get an answer to that question in coming days. Italy is selling treasury bills today, and it has a bond auction Monday. Here's what research firm Capital Economics said on that front in a report yesterday:

Wednesday's surge in Italian government bond yields has catapulted the euro-zone crisis into a dangerous new phase. Precedents set by Greece and Ireland suggest the Rubicon have been crossed. If so, Italy's cost of borrowing could now climb much more sharply, effectively locking her out of the capital markets. Even though Italy runs a primary surplus, this outcome could still force her to turn to official creditors to roll over her debt. But while Italy is considered to be too big to fail, she may be too big to save unless there is a major change of attitude towards resolving the crisis. Things could be about to turn very ugly.

And if Italy does require a rescue, is that even possible? The Capital Economics guys estimate Italy could require a bailout as big as 700 billion euros ($950 billion). By comparison, the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal have so far only added up to $370 billion. And where would the money come from? The euro zone rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, is unlikely to have that cash. What does that mean? Capital continues:

So who would save Italy's bacon if push came to shove? Core euro-zone economies are the obvious choice. But it remains to be seen whether they will put their money where their mouths are. If they don't, a disorderly default by Italy and her eventual exit from EMU could be on the cards.

Ah, here's where things get really interesting. Markets are not just testing Italy's commitment to reform, they are testing the entire euro zone's. The reason why we're here is because the leaders of the euro zone have never backed their strong words with strong action. At every stage of the crisis, they have delayed and obfuscated, and dodged. They have never shown the sense of urgency needed to quell contagion; their "solutions" have always been half-baked and underwhelming. This whole mess could have been avoided if Europe had taken decisive action when the first stages of the Greek debt crisis began almost two years ago. Or if they had implemented measures to shore up the European banking system long ago. Or if they had made greater progress towards fiscal integration. If, If, If. Now we're at another one of those put-up-or-shut-up moments. And what have we heard from the leaders of Europe? The European Central Bank has sat on the sidelines. German Chancellor Angela Merkel again called for reform of the euro and greater European integration. The solution to the crisis, she said, would be found in "more Europe, not less Europe." More words with no action. If Merkel & Co. aren't going to put up, then I'd rather they finally shut up. (See if a panicking economy will bring down Berlusconi.)

Cue the fat lady.

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Sudan bombs S. Sudan camp; president warns of war (AP)

NAIROBI, Kenya ? Military aircraft from Sudan crossed the new international border with South Sudan and dropped bombs Thursday in and around a camp filled with refugees, officials said. A government official initially reported deaths, but an American activist who spoke to aid workers at the camp later said there were no casualties.

The violence in and near the Yida refugee camp, located 10 miles (15 kilometers) south of the border, came one day after bombings were reported in another region of South Sudan, an attack that provoked strong condemnation from the U.S. State Department.

The president of South Sudan, which became the world's newest country only four months ago, said he fears the Khartoum-based government intends to invade the south soon.

"Whatever allegations Khartoum labels against the Republic of South Sudan are baseless, but intended to justify his pending invasion of the south," President Salva Kiir said. He later added: "We are committed to peaceful resolutions to any conflict but we will never allow our sovereignty to be violated by anybody."

There was no immediate comment from the Sudanese government in Khartoum on Thursday.

The violence is especially troubling given the history between the two sides: The black African tribes of South Sudan and the mainly Arab north battled two civil wars over more than five decades, and some 2 million died in the latest war, from 1983-2005.

A peace deal ended the war and South Sudan became its own country in July after a successful independence referendum. But there have been lingering disputes over border demarcation and oil-sharing revenues.

Ryan Boyette, a former aid worker who lives in Sudan who is now leading a team of 15 citizen journalists, said he talked to five aid workers in the Yida camp, all of whom said that four bombs were dropped but that they caused no casualties.

Boyette said a U.N. helicopter had landed on a nearby airstrip right as the first bomb hit. One of the bombs landed in a school yard where about 300 students were attending class, but the bomb did not explode, Boyette said, citing aid workers at the camp.

Aleem Siddique, a U.N. spokesman in South Sudan, said: "We're concerned for the safety of civilians in the area following reports of explosions and we are liaising with the authorities."

Jonathan Hutson, a spokesman for the U.S. advocacy group the Enough Project, said aid workers inside the Yida refugee camp said at least one bomb landed in the camp, and three or four fell outside it. The aid workers or their groups could not be named for security reasons, Hutson said.

Hutson said at least 15,000 refugees who fled violence in Sudan are living in the Yida camp. They walked at least seven days to reach the camp, he said.

Miabek Lang, the commissioner of Pariang County in South Sudan's Unity State, said earlier that 12 people were killed and 20 were wounded in Thursday's bombing. Lang could not be reached again for clarification on the conflicting reports.

The Wednesday bombings in Upper Nile state sparked condemnation from the U.S. State Department, which said the "unacceptable and unjustified" attacks increase the potential of conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. South Sudan's president said Thursday that seven people were killed in those bombings.

John Prendergast, the co-founder of the Enough Project, said the regime in Khartoum, Sudan's capital, is attempting to provoke South Sudan into restarting a war.

"The regime's end game is to either capture South Sudan's oil fields along their common border, or achieve a stronger negotiating position on shared oil revenues and border demarcation," Prendergast said. "This provocation must be countered by the full force of the international community, or else a massive war could unfold."

South Sudan's oil reserves must be pumped through pipelines that run through Sudan. Splitting the oil revenues has long been a major sticking point between the two sides. Another major issue is the demarcation of the border. Though the countries are now separate an official border has not yet been laid down.

Sudan has accused South Sudan of arming pro-South Sudan groups in its territory. But Kiir said Thursday that the accusations from Khartoum are "smoke screens" to mask Sudan's support of armed groups fighting a proxy war against South Sudan.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111110/ap_on_re_af/af_south_sudan_violence

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Touch of Woodstock at Occupy Wall Street

NEW YORK?? Occupy Wall Street demonstrations in New York City went old school on Tuesday as activist musicians David Crosby and Graham Nash delivered a touch of Woodstock, plans for a march to Washington were unveiled and some participants practiced another kind of democracy ? voting.

Demonstrators have been making their voices heard in the nation's town squares for some time now, and the spirit of protest has remained paramount. At Zuccotti Park, Crosby and Nash, of Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young were the latest entertainers to lend their talents to the cause.

The white-haired duo led a chant of "No More War!" and played a 20-minute acoustic performance for about 1,000 protesters and onlookers who stood elbow-to-elbow and spilled out of the lower Manhattan park onto nearby streets.

There was an air of nostalgia ? and the smell of marijuana ? wafting over the crowd as the pair had fans humming along to hits like "Teach Your Children Well," from the 1971 'Deja Vu' album, and "Long Time Gone," from their first album.

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Teenager Tyler Westcott wasn't around when Crosby and Nash made it big, but knew well the impact they made.

"These relics of Woodstock came and supported our movement," said the 19-year-old college student from Hunt, N.Y., his voice rising with excitement. "It's wild, how things line up.

"What you have here is the New Left from the Vietnam era ? and the new left here now."

Last month, folk music legend Pete Seeger and '60s folk singer Arlo Guthrie joined Occupy Wall Street demonstrators in their campaign against corporate greed. Recently, rappers Talib Kweli, Kanye West and Lupe Fiasco visited protesters in the park. In California, hip hop heavyweights MC Hammer, Raymond "Boots" Riley of hip hop group The Coup, and local rapper Mistah FAB have stopped by encampments.

Road trip
Taking the Occupy protest on the road to the country's elected officials was also on the agenda Tuesday.

A small group of Occupy Wall Street activists will start a march Wednesday with the hope of arriving in Washington on Nov. 23, the deadline for a congressional committee to decide whether to keep President Barack Obama's extension of Bush-era tax cuts. Protesters say the cuts benefit only rich Americans.

Kelley Brannon is organizing the 240-mile march through New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland with a core group of a dozen activists. They hope to pick up other marchers along the way ? even if for a day, or only an hour.

"Occupy the Highway" ? as it's been dubbed ? will start from the Manhattan park and continue with a ferry ride across the Hudson River to Elizabeth, N.J.

Brannon likened the effort to the long-distance marches led by the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., during the civil rights era.

"I mean, I'm not comparing us to Martin Luther King," said Brannon, of Queens, referring to three marches King led in 1965 from Selma, Ala., to Montgomery. Those marches ranged in size from 600 to 8,000 people.

"That's the premise Occupy is taking to the road: the historic relevance of such long-distance marches for social causes," Brannon said.

Casting ballots
But a day before beginning the march begins, some protesters recognized Tuesday as election day in the U.S, and cast their vote in some of the many local races and higher profile races being decided in several states.

Tom Hagan, a 61-year-old salesman from Queens and a Vietnam War veteran, flashed a big smile as he stood in the Zuccotti Park with a sign that read: "Election Day Sale. Buy One Politician. Get One Free."

Story: Military-style tents rise at NYC Occupy camp

Hagan, a registered Democrat, said he votes in every election, including Tuesday's. He also said he had come to the Occupy protest "because our democracy is for sale; we don't have a representative democracy anymore."

Shawn Cronick voted in Philadelphia's mayoral race before heading to the Occupy Philadelphia encampment.

"It's easy to be cynical and wonder if it can change a political climate dominated by money," he said. "That's not an excuse to check out of the process; it just means we have to do more than vote. We have to stand up for ourselves and against corporate interests."

Not all demonstrators felt their votes would mean anything. In Louisville, Pamela Newman stayed away from the voting booth, even as her daughter and fellow Occupy Louisville demonstrator, Pam Newman, voted.

The younger Newman said voting is a way to live the values they are trying to stand up for.

"We want to make serious changes," Pam Newman said. "We want people to be engaged. It's a good example for us to be involved."

Her mother, though, was skeptical.

"I didn't see anything to vote for," Pamela Newman said. "There's no candidate who said anything I wanted to vote for."

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45215647/ns/us_news-life/

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Ten Years of the iPod: A Personal Retrospective (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | The iPod's 10th anniversary is on Thursday. It's hard to believe it's been so long. In honor, here's my account of the first iPod I ever bought, which turned out to be the first of many generations of iPods to come - and why I wish I'd kept it.

Sometime around Christmas of 2001, I splurged on myself and bought a little white music player called an iPod. It was clunky. It only held about a thousand songs. It used a scroll wheel that became time consuming when I wanted to hear a certain song. It had buttons to push: play, menu, previous, next. But at the time, there was nothing like it! That clunky little iPod was the coolest thing I'd ever bought myself.

Being a lifelong music aficionado, having the ability to keep my music collection in my pocket was like a dream come true. I'd always been one to keep lots of music in my car. Countless CD's were lost, scratched and ruined over the years due to that habit. But with this new little iPod invention from Apple, a name I already trusted, I could finally leave all that other stuff at home. Admittedly, the device was too big for my pocket, but it fit in my purse just fine. That was the year I stopped using my Discman. It's lived in a box ever since.

That clunky little iPod was only compatible with a Mac. That turned out to be a little disappointing since I couldn't trade music with friends on their computers. Most people I knew had PCs. Nevertheless, I felt like it was a great investment. And it certainly was.

I can't remember how much I paid for that first iPod. I remember it costing what I felt was a decent-sized chunk of change. But in the end, I coughed up whatever amount that was. And in the years since, I don't think I've lost or damaged a single CD. Then again, I no longer have to drag them around everywhere I go.

Two years later, when the iPod shuffle came out, I splurged again on a new one. I gave the "old clunker" away. The smaller, touch sensitive control was appealing and so was being able to put more songs on it. Had I known that the original was going to become a sought-after collector's item, I would have laid it to rest in that box with my Discman instead of just giving it away. But at the time, I just thought newer was better. I certainly wish I'd had the foresight to not throw away the old with the new. Clearly, they both had their respective values.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/personaltech/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20111110/us_ac/10403441_ten_years_of_the_ipod_a_personal_retrospective

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Tuesday Morning Open Thread (Balloon Juice)

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Calif. pipe bursts in test, closes freeway lanes (Providence Journal)

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Big quake follows increase in Oklahoma rumblings (AP)

SPARKS, Okla. ? Clouds of dust belched from the corners of almost every room in Joe Reneau's house as the biggest earthquake in Oklahoma history rocked the two-story building.

A roar that sounded like a jumbo jet filled the air, and Reneau's red-brick chimney collapsed and fell into the roof above the living room. By the time the shaking stopped, a pantry worth of food had been strewn across the kitchen and shards of glass and pottery covered the floor.

"It was like WHAM!" said Reneau, 75, gesturing with swipes of his arms. "I thought in my mind the house would stand, but then again, maybe not."

The magnitude 5.6 earthquake and its aftershocks still had residents rattled Sunday.

Two minor injuries were reported from Saturday's quakes by the Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, which said neither person was hospitalized. And, aside from a buckled highway and the collapse of a tower on the St. Gregory's University administration building in Shawnee, no major damage was reported.

But the weekend earthquakes were among the strongest yet in a state that has seen a dramatic, unexplained increase in seismic activity.

Oklahoma typically had about 50 earthquakes a year until 2009. Then the number spiked, and 1,047 quakes shook the state last year, prompting researchers to install seismographs in the area. Still, most of the earthquakes have been small.

Saturday night's big one jolted Oklahoma State University's stadium shortly after the No. 3 Cowboys defeated No. 17 Kansas State. Fans were still leaving the game.

"That shook up the place, had a lot of people nervous," Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon said.

The temblor sent Jesse Richards' wife running outside because she thought their home was going to collapse. The earthquake centered near their home in Sparks, 44 miles northeast of Oklahoma City, could be felt throughout the state and in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, northern Texas and some parts of Illinois and Wisconsin.

Richards estimated it lasted for as much as a minute. One of his wife's cookie jars fell on the floor and shattered, and pictures hanging in their living room were knocked askew.

"We've been here 18 years, and it's getting to be a regular occurrence," said Richards, 50. But, he added, "I hope I never get used to them."

Geologists now believe a magnitude 4.7 earthquake Saturday morning was a foreshock to the bigger one that followed that night. They recorded at least 10 aftershocks by midmorning Sunday and expected more. Two of the aftershocks, at 4 a.m. and 9 a.m., were big, magnitude 4.0.

"We will definitely continue to see aftershocks, as we've already seen aftershocks from this one," said Paul Earle, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Golden, Colo. "We will see aftershocks in the days and weeks to come, possibly even months."

Brad Collins, the spokesman for St. Gregory's University in Shawnee, said one of the four towers on its "castle-looking" administration building collapsed in the big earthquake and the other three towers were damaged. He estimated the towers were about 25 feet tall.

"We definitely felt it," Collins said. "I was at home, getting ready for bed and it felt like the house was going to collapse. I tried to get back to my kids' room and it was tough to keep my balance, I could hardly walk."

Scientists are puzzled by the recent seismic activity. It appeared the latest quake occurred on the Wilzetta fault, but researchers may never know for sure. Earthquakes that hit east of the Rocky Mountains are harder to pinpoint because the fault systems are not as well studied as major faults like the San Andreas in California.

Arkansas also has seen a big increase in earthquake activity, which residents have blamed on injection wells. Natural gas companies engaged in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, use fluid to break apart shale and rock to release natural gas. Injection wells then dispose of the fluid by injecting it back into the ground.

There are 181 injection wells in the Oklahoma county where most of the weekend earthquakes happened, said Matt Skinner, spokesman for the Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which oversees oil and gas production in the state and intrastate transportation pipelines.

But natural gas companies claim there is no proof of a connection between injection wells and earthquakes, and a study released earlier this year by an Oklahoma Geological Survey seismologist seems to back that up. It found most of the state's seismic activity didn't appear to be tied to the wells, although more investigation was needed.

"It's a real mystery," seismologist Austin Holland of the Oklahoma Geological Survey said of the recent shaking.

"At this point, there's no reason to think that the earthquakes would be caused by anything other than natural" shifts in the Earth's crust, Holland said.

Earle said he couldn't comment on the relationship between fracking, injection wells and earthquakes.

Most Oklahoma residents still see earthquakes as anomalies in a state more often damaged by tornadoes. Roger Baker, 52, laughed at the idea of buying earthquake insurance, although the weekend quakes left a 6-foot-long crack several inches deep his yard in Sparks.

"It's just a part of life," he said.

Prague resident Mark Treat, 52, was at the Dollar General store Sunday, buying paper towels in bulk, garbage bins and a broom and mop to begin cleaning up his home. He said the quake hit hard enough to knock dishes, lamps and a TV to the ground and overturn a chest of drawers.

"It busted up a lot of stuff," Treat said. "I can't believe is only was a 5.6."

___

Associated Press writer Ken Miller in Oklahoma City and AP science writer Alicia Chang in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111106/ap_on_re_us/us_earthquake_oklahoma

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